Dr. Clay Marsh discusses Delta variant in latest blog

The following blog on the COVID-19 Delta variant was written by Clay Marsh, MD, West Virginia COVID-19 czar and vice president and executive dean for WVU Health Sciences:

“West Virginia is entering into the next chapter of the COVID-19 pandemic – one that is fueled by the Delta variant. We should consider the Delta variant a different kind of virus than the COVID-19 viruses we have seen to date.

“Why?

“The Delta variant of COVID-19 is much more infectious than any COVID-19 strain we have seen to date. It exists in 1000-times more virus in the airways of infected people than we have seen with other strains. It is reported as contagious as chicken pox, and it has been reported that people walking through air droplets that contain the virus have been infected by the Delta variant of COVID-19.

“The Delta variant spreads very quickly person-to-person and in social networks, which accounts for the explosive nature of the rapid growth in new cases and hospitalizations.

“This variant started in India, where it devastated the country. India saw an explosive increase in new cases and owing to its poor national vaccination rate, there were many people that were hospitalized and that died. At the peak of Delta variant infection in India, cities ran out of hospital beds and oxygen. Families were asked to supply oxygen to their family members lucky enough to find a hospital bed. While official figures place deaths in India from this variant at 400,000, researchers believe the number may be as high as 3.5 to 5 million people who died.

“The characteristic shape of the infectious curve created by the Delta variant is an inverted V. This inverted V curve is characterized by very rapid growth of new cases and hospitalizations to a peak and then a rapid downturn.

“What accounts for this?

“It is likely the rapidity in which the Delta variant infects so many people so quickly, that eventually there are firewalls – people that are immune to Delta through immunization or recovery from infection – and the Delta variant burns itself out. This is like a fast-moving fire that consumes all the flammable material in a forest and then burns out.

“In India, before the Delta variant took hold, 24% of its population showed evidence of past COVID-19 infection by immune antibody detection. Delta variant ravaged India for about 10-12 weeks. After this time, a reassessment was made and about 70% of India’s population then showed evidence for immune function to COVID-19.

“That is a startling figure.

“As opposed to India, the United Kingdom also was challenged with the Delta variant but did not suffer the same loss of life or great surge in hospitalization. In the U.K., which is heavily vaccinated, the variant created the same inverted V growth curve and rapidly increased new cases. However, with the large number of citizens with vaccination, they did not see a sharp increase in hospitalization and saw virtually no increase in deaths. In addition, their surge lasted only 6-8 weeks, as opposed to the 10-12 weeks of surge in India.

“This compelling data suggest that full vaccination is the key to successfully dealing with the Delta variant.”

Read the entire blog online >>>